Superforecasting Summary of Key Points

Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner dives into the world of forecasting, challenging the notion that the future is fundamentally unpredictable. The book presents compelling evidence from the Good Judgment Project, which demonstrates that certain individuals, dubbed ‘superforecasters,’ can predict future events with remarkable accuracy. These superforecasters possess qualities such as open-mindedness, diligence, numeracy, and a willingness to update their beliefs in light of new evidence. Tetlock and Gardner dissect the methodologies these individuals employ, offering insights into how forecasting accuracy can be significantly improved through specific habits of mind and practice.

The Litigators Summary of Key Points

《The Litigators》is a legal thriller that follows the story of David Zinc, a burnt-out attorney who leaves his corporate job to join a seedy, small-time law firm. The novel dives into the chaotic and often humorous world of street law and the biggest case of their careers.