Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
What’s inside
Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction by Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner dives into the world of forecasting, challenging the notion that the future is fundamentally unpredictable. The book presents compelling evidence from the Good Judgment Project, which demonstrates that certain individuals, dubbed ‘superforecasters,’ can predict future events with remarkable accuracy. These superforecasters possess qualities such as open-mindedness, diligence, numeracy, and a willingness to update their beliefs in light of new evidence. Tetlock and Gardner dissect the methodologies these individuals employ, offering insights into how forecasting accuracy can be significantly improved through specific habits of mind and practice.
You’ll Learn
- Enhanced decision-making abilities through better forecasting
- Improved ability to distinguish between credible and less credible future predictions
- Increased awareness of the cognitive biases affecting judgment
- Development of habits that foster more accurate predictions
Key Points
- Introduction to the Good Judgment Project
- Characteristics of superforecasters
- The importance of open-mindedness and flexibility
- How to improve forecasting accuracy
- The role of teamwork in enhancing predictions
- The impact of belief updating on forecasting
- Distinguishing between foxes and hedgehogs in forecasting
Who’s it For
- Data Scientists
- Policy Makers
- Business Analysts
- Economists
- Anyone interested in improving their predictive skills
About the author
Philip E. Tetlock is a renowned psychologist and political scientist known for his work on judgment and decision-making. Dan Gardner is a journalist and author with a keen interest in the science of forecasting. Together, they bring a rich blend of academic insight and accessible writing to explore the fascinating world of prediction in Superforecasting.